Document Type

Article

Publication Date

2-1-2014

Abstract

An overview of the Wyoming Weather Modification Pilot Project (WWMPP) is presented. This project, funded by the State of Wyoming, is designed to evaluate the effectiveness of cloud seeding with silver iodide in the Medicine Bow and Sierra Madre Ranges of south-central Wyoming. The statistical evaluation is based on a randomized crossover design for the two barriers. The description of the experimental design includes the rationale behind the design choice, the criteria for case selection, facilities for operations and evaluation, and the statistical analysis approach. Initial estimates of the number of cases needed for statistical significance used historical Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) data (1987-2006), prior to the beginning of the randomized seeding experiment. Refined estimates were calculated using high-resolution precipitation data collected during the initial seasons of the project (2007-10). Comparing the sample size estimates from these two data sources, the initial estimates are reduced to 236 (110) for detecting a 10% (15%) change. The sample size estimates are highly dependent on the assumed effect of seeding, on the correlations between the two target barriers and between the target and control sites, and on the variance of the response variable, namely precipitation. In addition to the statistical experiment, a wide range of physical studies and ancillary analyses are being planned and conducted. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.

DOI

10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0128.1

Comments

© Copyright 2014 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act September 2010 Page 2 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a web site or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (http://www.ametsoc.org/) or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or copyrights@ametsoc.org.

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