Department

Economics and F inance Department

First Advisor

Walt G. Werner

Description

This study will examine patterns of the trading price of natural gas and wheat futures from 1995 to the present. The objective of this study is to determine trends and statistical properties in the natural gas futures prices. We are also looking to see if there is a correlation between futures prices and companies’ stock prices that are closely correlated to the commodity. To do our analysis, we will use natural gas market data, wheat market data, and stock prices of Williams Company and Archer Daniels Midland. Our method includes using programs, such as Microsoft Excel and S.A.S., to perform statistical analysis of the data and see what conclusions a re apparent. This study of futures prices is important to the understanding of the commodity markets.

Comments

Oral Presentation, UW Honors Program

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Statistical Analysis of Commodity Futures Prices

This study will examine patterns of the trading price of natural gas and wheat futures from 1995 to the present. The objective of this study is to determine trends and statistical properties in the natural gas futures prices. We are also looking to see if there is a correlation between futures prices and companies’ stock prices that are closely correlated to the commodity. To do our analysis, we will use natural gas market data, wheat market data, and stock prices of Williams Company and Archer Daniels Midland. Our method includes using programs, such as Microsoft Excel and S.A.S., to perform statistical analysis of the data and see what conclusions a re apparent. This study of futures prices is important to the understanding of the commodity markets.